Welcome to space weather, issued by XMDV radio at Wed the 21 Jan 2026 at 02:59:32

In the last 24 hours Solar activity remained at low levels with most of the C-class flarescoming from Region 4345 , the largest being animpulsive C4.5 solar flux at 20 to 0733 utc. This region showed growth and becamemore magnetic complex over the past 24 hrs. Region 4352 was numbered this period, totaling eleven active regions onthe solar visible disk . Coronagraph imagery were contaminated by signatures of solar energeticparticles, complicating detection of potential Earth-directed eruptions. Initial analysis of the poorly observed coronal activity indicateseruptions likely directed to the far side, but forecasters await newdata to enable proper analysis of recent activity. Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels, with a slight chance for X-class flares on 21 to 23 Jan, primarily due to the magnetic potential of Regions 4341, 4342, and 4345.

In the last 24 hours The greater than 2 mega electron volt electron flux remained below 1, 000 pfu thresholdduring the day, due to the ongoing geomagnetic storm impacts atgeostationary orbit. The greater than 10 mega electron volt proton flux continued to mostly decrease towardsbackground levels, hovering at or just below the S2 to S1 levels during the period. However, three isolated enhancementevents were observed over the decreasing trend of the proton flux withpeaks of: 546 pfu at 20 to 0645 utc, 211 pfu at 20 to 1320 utc and 91 pfu at 20 to 1755 utc. Those enhancements suggest the arrival of differentparticle population accelerated by different components of the Halo coronal mass ejectionthat left the Sunday on 18 january. The greater than 2 mega electron volt electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 21 to 23 january. The greater than 10 mega electron volt proton flux is expected to decreasefrom S2 to S1 storm levels early on 21 Jan, graduallydropping below the S1 threshold by midday on 21 january. By 22 to 23 Jan, chances decrease for levels to cross the S1-S2 storm thresholds.

In the last 24 hours Solar wind parameters reflected sustained, but decreasing coronal mass ejection influence. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a maximum of 66 nano tesla atthe start of the period, to average near 19 nano tesla the latter half of theperiod. The Bz component began the period strongly north near 60 nano tesla until around 20 to 0500 utc when it deflected backsouthward . Values ranged between +1 nano tesla and to 25 nano tesla the secondhalf of the reporting period. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased frombeginning speeds around 1030 kilometers per second to end the period near 800 kilometers per second. Phiangle was oriented in the positive solar sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist, but slowlydecrease on 21 january as coronal mass ejection effects diminish and weaker positive polaritycoronal hole influences return on 22 to 23 january.

In the last 24 hours Geomagnetic activity ranged from Major to Severe storm levels due to combined influences of +coronal hole high speed stream and aHalo coronal mass ejection arrival. The geomagnetic activity is expected to continue reaching Minor toSevere storm levels early on 21 january as the combined influencefrom the aforementioned +coronal hole high speed stream and Halo coronal mass ejection effects persist. Conditionsare expected to begin decreasing throughout the day, down to G1 storm levels and, eventually, to active levels as coronal mass ejection effects diminish. Unsettled to Active levels are anticipated on 22 Jan, followed by mostlyunsettled levels on 23 Jan, as influence from the positive polarity CHHSS resumes.

This has been space weather, issued by XMDV radio at Wed the 21 Jan 2026 at 02:59:32

Space weather was created by William Greenwood with material from the N O double A