Welcome to space weather, issued by XMDV radio at Mon the 07 Oct 2024 at 12:30:08

In the last 24 hours Solar activity reached moderate levels with four lower level M-classflares. An M1.5 solar flux flare from near Region 3839 wasthe largest event of the day. Regions 3842 and 3844 continued to be the main culprits of activityproducing an M1.4 at 06 to 1859 utc and an M1.3 at 06 to 1521 utc. AR 3842 exhibited decay in its intermediate spots, yet maintained a deltasignature in its large, leading penumbra. AR 3844, now foreshortened bylimb proximity, seemingly experienced decay in its intermediate spots aswell. Region 3848 remained relatively quietwhile gaining additional spots. Additionally, this particular AR beganto show signs of developing mixed polarity in its large penumbra late inthe period. Region 3849 was split into tworegions this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. New Region 3850 , which was split from AR 3849, was numbered. NewRegions 3851 and 3852 werenumbered this period. coronal mass ejection activity originating from the southwest limb was noted on 06 Oct, but considering the source location, an Earth-directed component isunlikely. Solar activity is expected to be moderate witha chance for isolated X-class flares through 09Oct.

In the last 24 hours The greater than 2 mega electron volt electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 mega electron volt proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 mega electron volt electron flux is expected to reach high levelsthrough 08 october before returning to normal to moderate levels on 09 october. There is a chance for the greater than 10 mega electron volt proton flux to reach theS1 threshold through 09 september due to the enhanced flare potentialfrom multiple regions near the western limb of the solar disk.

In the last 24 hours Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of coronal mass ejection influences beginningearly on 06 october. Total field abruptly increased from 8 nano tesla to 15 nano tesla, andreached a peak of 17 nano tesla as the period progressed. The Bz componentinitially shifted northward, but did turn southward for a few excursionsreaching to 5 to to 12 nano tesla. As coronal mass ejection influences began, solar wind speedsgradually increased to a range of ~500 kilometers per second to ~600 kilometers per second and phi becamevariable. An additional enhancement to the solar wind environment is possible bymid utc day on 07 october with glancing influences from coronal mass ejections that left theSunday late on 03 october and early 04 october. An additional disturbance ispossible on 08 october due to weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream influences. Areturn to an ambient-like environment is expected on 09 october.

In the last 24 hours The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active, with periods of G1 toward the end of the period. G1 geomagnetic storming is expected early on 07 october with anyglancing influence from the coronal mass ejection that left the Sunday early on 04 october. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 08 october as any lingering coronal mass ejectioneffects wane coupled with weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects. Mostlyquiet conditions are expected to prevail on 09 october.

This has been space weather, issued by XMDV radio at Mon the 07 Oct 2024 at 12:30:08

Space weather was created by William Greenwood with material from the N O double A