Welcome to space weather, issued by XMDV radio at Thu the 15 May 2025 at 02:59:50

In the last 24 hours Solar activity reached high levels during the period. The majority ofthe flares originated from Region 4087 with the largest flare being an X2.7 to 2 b at 14 to 0825 utc. A coronal mass ejection wasassociated with the flare, modeling shows the eject passing behindEarth. The region also produced an M7.7 at 14 to 1119 utc, an M5.3 at 14 to 0325 utc, and an M4.7 at 14 to 1811 utc. All other regions have been indecay or stable. Given the magnetic complexity of Region 4087, theres a 75% chance that M-Class level flare activity will occur through 17 may with a 30% chance for X-Class levels during the sametime.

In the last 24 hours The greater than 2 mega electron volt electron flux has been at moderate levels, nearing threshold during the diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 mega electron voltproton flux continues to trend towards background following the X1.2 flare at 13 to 1538 utc. The enhanced electron flux within the coronal hole high high speedstream will support the greater than 2 mega electron volt electron flux atgeostationary orbit reaching threshold 15 to 16 may with waning influences 17 may. With no complex active regions in the west, the greater than 10 mega electron volt proton flux is expected to remain at background.

In the last 24 hours The solar wind reflected influences from the coronal hole high speed stream originating from thenegative polarity CH in the southwest part of the disk. The total fieldwas between 1 to 11 nano tesla with a variable north-south componentbetween to 10 to 6 nano tesla. Solar wind speeds averaged around 400 kilometers per second with amostly negative phi angle. Solar wind parameters will continue to be influenced by the coronal hole high speed streamthrough 15 may. A coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption in thenorthern hemisphere is expected to pass above Earth 17 May, glancinginfluences will likely enhance the solar wind field during this time.

In the last 24 hours Due to the coronal hole high speed stream mentioned previously, the geomagnetic field has beenat unsettled to active conditions. Current conditions will continue into 15 may with the coronal hole high speed stream moving outof a geoeffective position on 16 may. A glancing blow from a coronal mass ejectionassociated with a filament eruption is expected to enhance thegeomagnetic field again 17 may. Active conditions are expected duringthis time.-Bri

This has been space weather, issued by XMDV radio at Thu the 15 May 2025 at 02:59:50

Space weather was created by William Greenwood with material from the N O double A